Issue: Jun 2011


Japan Disaster Downtime Updated IHS Automotive Analysis



Automakers Seeing Improved Production Output

by IHS Automotive Analysis

IHS Automotive Director of Global Vehicle Production Forecasts Michael Robinet's Updated Summary Analysis of the Automotive Industry Downtime Resulting from the Japan Disaster

Japan Disaster Downtime Analysis

Changes from May 25 Update

Reduced Impact from May 25 Setting

• Improvements reflected with virtually every Japanese OEM as supplies improve

• Toyota lost volume is slated to essentially end outside of Japan by the end of June as components are prioritized for non-Japan output

• Honda’s situation is not slated to improve as quickly as Toyota’s due to various interdependencies and component issues affecting critical vehicle launches

• Non-Japanese OEMs were able to side-step the June Tier-2/3 component “bubble” through resourcing, output mix changes, and the retiming of summer shutdowns Almost 80% of total anticipated lost volume has already occurred

• To June 3, lost volume is slated to have reached ~2.3 million units globally

• Over 65% of future lost volume (ceasing in September) is expected to emanate from Japan—underscoring vast improvement in operations outside Japan

• Building back lost volume will start earlier than expected outside Japan and may start with various OEMs on a limited basis in Japan in the late summer

• Total volume lost will reach ~2.8 million units.

• Japan total lost volume of 1.72 million units. Downtime ends by Week 29 (late September).

• Japanese OEMs outside Japan total lost units 1 05 ends by August) of 1.05 mil Week 23 (late August).

• Non-Japanese OEMs total lost volume of 75,000 vehicles has essentially ended already.

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