Arthur D. Little predicts future developments of automotive CO2
by
Jon Knox
Despite the growing
importance of automotive CO2 regulations, a uniform global
approach to tackle the issue has not yet been developed. Countries have adopted
different regulatory policies and implementation procedures, resulting in a
high degree of complexity in the global landscape. In its new report, “The Automotive CO2 Emissions
Challenge,” global management consultancy Arthur D. Little
(ADL) predicts the future development of automotive CO2 up to
2020, and explains what steps OEMs should take to overcome future challenges.
“Oil dependency and climate change are topics highly debated by governments and
communities,” says Fabrizio
Arena,
Partner of ADL’s Automotive & Manufacturing Group. “As a
consequence, OEMs must define investments, control manufacturing costs and
constantly review their car portfolios to cope with worldwide future
challenges.”
In this study, ADL considered a wide set of drivers to predict the future
development of automotive CO2 regulations up to 2020. Following
quantitative analysis as well as qualitative interviews with industry experts,
ADL predicts oil price will be the main driver in CO2 regulation;
coupled with other foreseeable drivers including climate change commitment.
On the basis of these findings, ADL predicts countries that are regulated up to
2020 will not change their policies, given that they have prepared for a slight
increase in oil price. The only exceptions are China and India due to factors
such as a booming population, increasing wealth per capita and a growing demand
for road transportation fuel.
“With more stringent and
converging CO2 emissions standards in both advanced and
emerging markets, OEMs will have to think about their CO2 strategies
globally,” adds
Arena.
“Technology such as aerodynamic, light-weight designs and NEV technologies will
be more critical than ever in making the necessary improvements to reach the
requirements.”
The full report is
available at www.adl.com/CO2challenge
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