Global demand for diesel light vehicles is expected to nearly double over the next 10 years — increasing from 15 million sales in 2005 to 29 million in 2015 — according to J.D. Power Automotive Forecasting.(SM)
J.D. Power Automotive Forecasting projects the global market share for diesel-powered cars and light trucks will reach 26 percent by 2015 — an increase from 18 percent in 2005. While Western Europe has been a key driver in the rapid growth of diesel vehicle demand for the past 10 years, increased demand from consumers in other regions will promote growth during the next decade.
“As a proven, cost-effective and ‘off-the-shelf’ solution, diesel has a head start over other emerging fuel-efficient technologies,” said Alastair Bedwell, senior manager for J.D. Power Automotive Forecasting. “With energy prices at elevated levels and new regulatory pressure to improve light-truck fuel efficiency, a range of fuel-efficient alternatives to the conventional gasoline engine will be required. The United States and Canada are markets with enormous potential for diesel light-vehicle sales.”
The diesel share of U.S. light-vehicle sales is expected to increase from 3.2 percent in 2005 to more than 10 percent by the middle of the next decade. Conversely, prospects for diesel light-vehicle demand within the key Asian markets remains mixed.
“South Korea and India are key markets for diesel growth in Asia, and the market in China is continuously developing,” said Bedwell. “However, near- and mid-term prospects for diesel vehicle sales in Japan remain limited. There has been some rejection of diesel technology among consumers, despite Japanese manufacturers embracing the technology.”
J.D. Power and Associates expects a slowing of growth in the Western Europe diesel car market as some key markets reach saturation. However, demand in Eastern Europe is expected to eclipse that of Western Europe during the forecast period. While Euro-5 emission limits will not disrupt the diesel market, Euro-6 limits have the potential to negatively alter the fiscal relationship between diesel and its competitors. As a result, diesel share in Western Europe is expected to peak at below 60 percent of the new-vehicle market.
Volkswagen is expected to remain the largest global supplier of diesel-fueled light vehicles, followed by Ford Motor Company. Additionally, Toyota is slated to be the fastest-growing global diesel new-vehicle provider from 2005 through 2015.
J.D. Power Automotive Forecasting gathers diesel light-vehicle sales data from 50 global markets. An assessment of local fiscal, regulatory and technical demand drivers are used to forecast potential diesel sales. Consumer attitudes toward diesel cars and light trucks, as well as attitudes of key vehicle manufacturers within particular markets, are also considered while developing the sales forecast. Additionally, the cost benefits of diesel and its principal competitors for each market are compared with local factors — such as diesel fuel supply infrastructure — to achieve a robust forecast.
With locations in Detroit and Oxford, UK, J.D. Power Automotive Forecasting is comprised of statisticians, economists and automotive industry experts who deliver timely, accurate and reliable vehicle-related forecasting information on a global basis.
Headquartered in Westlake Village, Calif., J.D. Power and Associates is an ISO 9001-registered global marketing information services firm operating in key business sectors including market research, forecasting, consulting, training and customer satisfaction. The firm’s quality and satisfaction measurements are based on responses from millions of consumers annually. J.D. Power and Associates is a business unit of The McGraw-Hill Companies.